It's been a pretty great week for Rapid7, Inc. (NASDAQ:RPD) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$12.27 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$211m were what the analysts expected, Rapid7 surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.09 per share, an impressive 338% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Rapid7's 24 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$839.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 64% to US$0.49. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$838.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a great increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target rose 43% to US$11.71, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rapid7 at US$15.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.76. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rapid7's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.9% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Rapid7 is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Rapid7 following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rapid7 going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.