Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is telling anyone who will listen that AI productivity may give America a historic shot at growing its way out of its debt problem.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz is not buying that Washington will help.

Speaking on his All Things Markets podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz said the Trump administration came in with a real plan to bend the debt-to-GDP curve, and whiffed.

The 3% Solution

Dalio’s math requires cutting deficits to roughly 3% of GDP through a mix of tax increases and spending cuts.

Public debt has hit $31.27 trillion, above GDP and the highest level as a share of the economy since World War II, according to Novogratz.

The Bridgewater founder has argued that AI-driven income growth could plausibly ease the burden if policymakers do the fiscal work.

Novogratz said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s “3-3-3” pitch, paired with Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve, was supposed to be the dream team for fiscal discipline.

Instead, the administration is asking for another $1.5 trillion for the military, and DOGE has produced little in the way of structural cuts.

“Donald Trump likes to spend money like, period, end story,” Novogratz said.

The Robot Tax Is Coming

Even if Dalio’s AI productivity dividend materializes, Novogratz expects Washington to claw a piece back. He put the odds of a US tax on AI agents or robots by 2028 at over 70%.

The idea, first floated by Bill Gates roughly two decades ago, has resurfaced as policymakers wrestle with how to fund safety nets if AI displaces large numbers of workers.

A Korean lawmaker floated a similar proposal earlier this month, briefly dragging down AI-exposed names before the market shook it off.

Why It Matters For Stocks

The Galaxy founder said the amount of money Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR), Anduril and RTX (NYSE:RTX) are making is “breathtaking,” even as some 82nd Airborne troops have deployed to the Middle East theater without scopes on their rifles.

The US has depleted a significant chunk of its missile arsenal through Operation Epic Fury, and replacement spending is already baked in regardless of which party controls Congress.

Polymarket is bearish on a peace deal between Iran and the US any time soon, pricing July 31 at 38%.

Polymarket traders give a US recession by the end of 2026 roughly a 26% chance, near contract lows.

Novogratz flagged retail sentiment near 99% and total market cap to GDP at a record high as warning signs. He is still long the AI capex theme but buying cheap puts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) for protection.

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