AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Statutory revenue of US$627m and earnings of US$0.68 both blasted past expectations, beating expectations by 25% and 35%, respectively, ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

After the latest results, the five analysts covering AAON are now predicting revenues of US$2.29b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 25% to US$2.42. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.29 in 2026. Sentiment certainly seems to have improved after the latest results, with a decent improvement in revenue and a small increase to earnings per share estimates.

Despite these upgrades, the consensus price target fell 5.5% to US$143, perhaps signalling that the uplift in performance is not expected to last. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AAON at US$154 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$135. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that AAON's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 41% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AAON to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around AAON's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for AAON going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.