Arlo Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ARLO) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$150m, some 7.6% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.13, 174% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Arlo Technologies after the latest results.

Following last week's earnings report, Arlo Technologies' four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$565.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 7.5% to US$0.26 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$567.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.22 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The average the analysts price target fell 6.3% to US$21.75, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Arlo Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$19.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Arlo Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Arlo Technologies' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 5.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Arlo Technologies.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Arlo Technologies' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Arlo Technologies' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Arlo Technologies' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Arlo Technologies analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.