It's been a mediocre week for Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to US$3.43 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$212m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.34 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Bumble is for revenues of US$846.6m in 2026. This implies an uneasy 9.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Bumble is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.01 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$857.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.07 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$4.37, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bumble analyst has a price target of US$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bumble is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bumble. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Bumble. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Bumble analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Bumble has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.