Last week, you might have seen that Carnival Corporation Ltd. (NYSE:CCL) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$29.07 in the past week. Revenues were US$6.7b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.39 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Carnival's 23 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$27.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$2.22, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$27.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.23 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$35.60. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Carnival analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.70. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Carnival shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Carnival's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 35% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Carnival.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Carnival going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.