Last week, you might have seen that Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$182 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$49b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 18%, coming in at US$1.11 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Chevron's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$224.3b in 2026. This reflects a substantial 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 143% to US$13.51. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$227.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.69 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Chevron's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$215, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Chevron, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$236 and the most bearish at US$165 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Chevron's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Chevron to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Chevron following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$215, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Chevron going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.