First National Corporation (NASDAQ:FXNC) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$24m arriving 2.3% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.63, 6.8% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for First National from three analysts is for revenues of US$95.5m in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.2% to US$2.45. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$94.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.37 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.0% to US$30.50, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic First National analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$28.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting First National is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that First National's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that First National is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around First National's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for First National going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of First National's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.