It's been a good week for Heritage Global Inc. (NASDAQ:HGBL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.8% to US$1.09. Revenues fell 7.7% short of expectations, at US$12m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with Heritage Global reporting a statutory loss of US$0.46 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Heritage Global from two analysts is for revenues of US$53.2m in 2026. If met, it would imply a meaningful 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$0.36. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$55.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.14 in 2026. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Heritage Global, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

The average price target fell 15% to US$2.83, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Heritage Global's valuation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Heritage Global's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Heritage Global to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Heritage Global to become unprofitable next year. They also downgraded Heritage Global's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Heritage Global's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Heritage Global going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.