A week ago, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MATV) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$532m, some 4.6% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.06, 500% ahead of expectations. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following last week's earnings report, Mativ Holdings' sole analyst are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$2.02b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.28 in 2026, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this earnings announcement, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$2.01b and losses of US$0.31 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analyst becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target rose 35% to US$21.00, with the analyst signalling that the forecast reduction in losses would be a positive for the stock's valuation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Mativ Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Mativ Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for Mativ Holdings going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.