It's been a good week for Northern Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:NTRS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 7.5% to US$168. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$2.2b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 16%, coming in at US$2.71 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Northern Trust's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$8.84b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 14% to US$11.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$8.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.57 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 8.9% to US$167, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northern Trust at US$190 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$130. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Northern Trust's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.7% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Northern Trust is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Northern Trust following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Northern Trust analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.