It's been a pretty great week for Schrödinger, Inc. (NASDAQ:SDGR) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to US$18.16 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. In addition to smashing expectations with revenues of US$59m, Schrödinger delivered a surprise statutory profit of US$0.08 per share, a notable improvement compared to analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Schrödinger after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Schrödinger, is for revenues of US$240.3m in 2026. This implies a discernible 7.2% reduction in Schrödinger's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.61 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$234.7m and losses of US$2.00 per share in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Schrödinger's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$20.57, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Schrödinger analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 14% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Schrödinger's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Schrödinger going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.