It's been a good week for Vipshop Holdings Limited (NYSE:VIPS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.2% to US$14.41. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥27b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Vipshop Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥4.48 per share, a notable 14% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Vipshop Holdings' 20 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥106.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 14% to CN¥17.87. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥107.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥14.67 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$19.17, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Vipshop Holdings analyst has a price target of US$25.32 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$14.22. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Vipshop Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Vipshop Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2026. Historically, Vipshop Holdings' top line has shrunk approximately 1.4% annually over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Vipshop Holdings is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Vipshop Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.17, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vipshop Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vipshop Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Vipshop Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.