It's shaping up to be a tough period for ONE Gas, Inc. (NYSE:OGS), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. ONE Gas reported an earnings miss, with US$832m revenues falling 14% short of analyst models, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.04 also coming in slightly below expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ONE Gas from eight analysts is for revenues of US$2.47b in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 6.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.5% to US$4.77. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.75 in 2026. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at US$92.38even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ONE Gas analyst has a price target of US$103 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$78.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ONE Gas' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that ONE Gas' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ONE Gas is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at US$92.38, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ONE Gas analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.