Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is back in focus after announcing TangleLab, a quantum supercomputing testbed developed with HPE and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, supported by a US$5 million National Science Foundation grant.

Rigetti Computing’s TangleLab announcement comes as the stock experiences pressure, with the share price down 32% over the past 30 days and 44% year to date, despite a very large 3 year total shareholder return and a 36% 5 year total shareholder return.

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Rigetti Computing now trades at a steep discount to the current analyst price target, even after the recent slide. Is the gap a sign that the market is too cautious, or does it reflect real concerns about the business?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.4% Undervalued

Rigetti Computing last closed at $13.22 while the most followed narrative pegs fair value at $16.00. That gap is what the current debate revolves around.

Rigetti’s model is still early-stage and uneven. Revenue currently comes from system sales, cloud access, research and government-related contracts, and associated services, which means quarter-to-quarter results will remain lumpy. Q1 2026 is a good example, revenue improved sharply because of specific deliveries, not because Rigetti suddenly has a stable recurring-revenue engine.

Curious what turns that uneven revenue mix into a $16.00 fair value for Rigetti Computing. The narrative leans heavily on accelerating top line, stronger liquidity and ambitious hardware milestones. The exact balance between growth assumptions and future margins is where it gets interesting.

Result: Fair Value of $16.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Rigetti Computing still faces clear pressure if technical milestones slip or if revenue remains tied to a few large, lumpy contracts that are slow to repeat.

Another View On Rigetti Computing’s Valuation

The narrative fair value pins Rigetti Computing at $16.00 and calls the stock undervalued. The market is telling a different story. On a P/B of 7.5x versus 4.3x for the US Semiconductor industry and 5.1x for peers, investors are already paying a premium for a company that is still loss making. How comfortable are you paying above sector and peer levels when profits are not yet in sight?

Next Steps

Concerned about the mixed signals around Rigetti Computing and its valuation debate, and want to move quickly rather than wait for consensus to form? Take a closer look at the balance between potential upside and clear red flags by reviewing the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.