Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is back in focus after signing a non binding letter of intent with the U.S. Commerce Department for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding, alongside launching its 108 qubit Cepheus 1 108Q processor on major cloud platforms.

The stock has been volatile around the CHIPS Act headlines and insider selling, yet the 30 day share price return of 17.54% and very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been rebuilding after earlier setbacks this year.

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With Rigetti shares up 84% over the past year but still trading about 39% below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: Is the recent quantum excitement underappreciated, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 31.1% Overvalued

Rigetti shares last closed at $20.98, while the most followed narrative fair value sits at $16.00, so the valuation debate is front and center.

Bull case: Rigetti is more credible today than it was before the Q1 2026 update. Revenue improved meaningfully, the balance sheet remains strong, Cepheus-1-108Q is now commercially available, and the company continues to hit relevant hardware milestones. If technical progress and customer traction continue together, the stock can keep working.

Want to see what is baked into that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, sizable losses narrowing over time, and hardware milestones feeding into bigger contracts.

According to HedgeY, the fair value implies investors are weighing a very early stage revenue base of $7.1 million in 2025 against a market cap above $6.0b, with Q1 2026 acting as a proof point for Novera and Cepheus system demand rather than a mature business model.

The same narrative also highlights that Rigetti is still loss making, with a Q1 2026 operating loss of $26.0 million and a non GAAP net loss of $14.7 million, so the valuation hinges on belief that technical progress and customer traction eventually justify paying well ahead of current fundamentals.

Result: Fair Value of $16.00 (OVERVALUED)

However, this narrative still hinges on very small revenue of US$10.0 million against a roughly US$7.0b market cap and ongoing heavy losses, so any disappointment on technical milestones or contract timing could significantly affect sentiment.

Next Steps

If this mix of excitement and concern around Rigetti sounds familiar, consider acting while the story is still forming by weighing up the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Rigetti has sharpened your curiosity, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other focused ideas that could round out your portfolio and thinking.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning the 44 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid business quality with under appreciated share prices.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.