Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock is back in focus after the company secured a multi year, $397 million contract from the United States Space Force to develop, launch, and operate advanced Flatellites for the SB AMTI surveillance program.

Rocket Lab’s latest U.S. Space Force win comes after a busy few weeks that included a record launch contract for suborbital missions and new Electron deals for QPS-SAR. The stock’s recent moves reflect shifting expectations around these defense and space system opportunities.

The share price is up 27.10% over the past week and 5.75% in the last day, even though the 30 day share price return is down 19.99% and the 90 day share price return is down 5.22%. Long term total shareholder returns remain very large over three and five years, which points to strong but volatile momentum around Rocket Lab’s story.

If this kind of contract driven move has your attention, it can be useful to see what else is setting up interestingly across space and launch peers through the 36 robotics and automation stocks

Bulls see Rocket Lab’s new defense contracts and vertical integration as proof the business is gaining weight. Bears focus on ongoing losses and volatility. Which side does the current valuation lean toward as investors reassess this latest jump in the stock?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.4% Undervalued

The most followed Rocket Lab narrative pegs fair value at $85.04 per share, modestly above the last close of $74.48, which suggests the contract news sits inside a bigger multi year thesis.

Rocket Lab is mid transformation from a small launch specialist into a vertically integrated space and defense prime, with Space Systems now approximately 67% of revenue and growing fastest.

A $1.85B backlog (+73% YoY) anchored by the $816M SDA Tranche 3 award provides multi year revenue visibility that the current trailing P/S of approximately 72x does not yet fully reflect.

Curious how a company that is still loss making reaches that valuation. The narrative leans heavily on projected revenue expansion, margin gains, and a future earnings profile that looks very different to today.

Result: Fair Value of $85.04 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Rocket Lab’s story can still be knocked off course if Neutron timelines slip again, or if the Space Force spending cycle cools and contracts slow.

Next Steps

Given the mix of enthusiasm and concern around Rocket Lab right now, it makes sense to move quickly and review the underlying data yourself. To weigh the upside against the downsides in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.