ROI-ENERGY WATCH: Start your engines
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
By Ron Bousso
June 15 (Reuters) -
Breaking down what matters today in global energy markets
By Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist
It’s finally here. One hundred and eight days since the start of the Iran war, the United States and Iran agreed on a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both Tehran and Washington are presenting this agreement as a win, which, in a way, is a good sign. The two parties will sign the memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.
The full details of the preliminary MoU have yet to be published, but we know the fate of Iran’s nuclear programme is subject to further negotiations over a 60-day period – a pretty ambitious timeline.
Nevertheless, the deal has been welcomed with a collective sigh of relief from Gulf states and the international community. Brent crude oil prices dropped to a three-month low of $83 a barrel as traders anticipate the resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway critical to global energy flows that has been largely blocked since the start of the war.
Yet there are already signs that the sides are interpreting the deal differently. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would be open "toll free" and that a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would also end.
"Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump wrote in a social media post.
Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, which published what it claims are the 14 points of the draft MoU, said the deal called for reopening the strait within 30 days under Iranian arrangements, a possible reference to its desire to control traffic with a toll.
The lack of clarity over the permanent status of the Strait of Hormuz as well as the thorny issues that triggered the conflict in the first place suggest that the agreement may not prevent future flare-ups, casting doubt over how quickly - or fully - tanker traffic through the vital waterway can return to normal. More on this in my latest column.
In other news:
With the Iran agreement, President Trump may have found a way to begin extricating himself from an unpopular war while setting global markets on a path toward easing energy prices that have spiked during the crisis, wrote Reuters reporters.
Shippers said confidence in resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks to rebuild and navigation will only restart once safety is assured.
As ever, don’t hesitate to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or follow me on LinkedIn with any questions or thoughts.
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