The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

By Katrina Hamlin

HONG KONG, May 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - U.S. roadblocks against BYD 002594.SZ, Chery Automobile 9973.HK and other Chinese automakers will be removed. It’s just a question of when and how. Models made in the People’s Republic are cheaper, and electric vehicles like Geely’s EX5 and Xiaomi's 1810.HK SU7 are also often snazzier than what’s available from Ford Motor F.N, General Motors GM.N and other Western brands. Yet protectionism, fears over jobs, and tech security concerns have inspired triple-digit tariffs and other rules that effectively shut them out of the American market. This week’s summit between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping could yield the first small signs of change.

While Taiwan and broader trade tensions are far more likely to dominate the discussions, there have already been cracks in U.S. resolve, including from Trump “If they want to ​come in and build a plant and hire you and hire your ​friends and ⁠your neighbors, that’s great, I love that," he said of Chinese carmakers at the Detroit Economic Club in January.

Those manufacturers have started to entertain the American Dream that not long ago seemed impossible. “The U.S. is definitely somewhere we have to look”, Xpeng 9868.HK Co-President Brian Gu told journalists at the Beijing auto show in April. Others debating the possibility at the event included BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li and Sebastiano Russo, a design director at Li Auto 2015.HK.

It would make sense for Trump to put Chinese access to U.S. car buyers on the table. He has cajoled overseas companies in a variety of industries to invest in operations stateside. China’s carmakers would relish the chance to play in the world’s second-largest market after their own, with 16 million new cars sold last year. And not just because of its size: sales of new retail vehicles in the Middle Kingdom fell by nearly a fifth in the first quarter.

The country’s car manufacturers are relying more on international markets, where they are aiming to almost triple overseas production by 2030, according to AlixPartners. Exports now make up around a third of total sales.

China’s auto industry has already invested more than $120 billion abroad over the past 25 years, peaking at around $20 billion in 2025, per Rhodium Group. While they are not allowed in the U.S., carmakers from BYD to Geely are looking for options in neighbouring Mexico and Canada.

They're not completely cut off from the U.S. market. China-based companies own more than 60 suppliers there and hold stakes in about 500, the Wall Street Journal reported. All told, more than 100 Chinese automakers, tech providers and suppliers have some kind of presence in the country, per CNBC. The Geely group may be the most notable, largely thanks to acquiring Lotus and Volvo VOLVb.ST. And Alphabet’s GOOGL.O robo-taxi subsidiary Waymo uses Geely’s Zeekr brand.

Electric-vehicle upstarts such as Li Auto and Nio 9866.HK have research and development outposts there, while rival Xpeng was recently advertising more than 20 positions for researchers and engineers in California. All three are listed on U.S. bourses.

For their part, U.S. drivers seem keen to buy Chinese cars. American journalists and influencers were among the crowd at the Beijing auto show, catering to growing interest from their audiences. Nearly 40% of consumers would be very or extremely likely to consider buying a Chinese brand, according to a Cox Automotive survey this year.

Shoppers in the country have watched prices climbing as smaller, budget models become increasingly scarce: the average new car costs more than $50,000, up from about $36,000 just 10 years ago, per Cox data, as product portfolios skew towards sports utility vehicles, which earn chunkier premiums for carmakers. That’s more than twice the average price in China, where BYD, Geely and peers offer options for less than $12,000.

A few are already creeping in. BYDs bought in Mexico are a common sight in American border towns like El Paso and San Diego, though they are not allowed to register in the U.S. system. Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley spent six months driving an imported Xiaomi SU7 - and didn't want to hand it back.

Any effort to weaken or dismantle the current regime would rile the Detroit 3 as well as politicians. In March, five major auto trade groups including the National Automobile Dealers Association urged Washington to continue to keep Chinese carmakers shut out, citing concerns over competition, among others. Federal lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, fretting over national security and employment, have already followed suit, and there are even bipartisan bills in both the House and Senate aiming to codify an earlier rule effectively banning Chinese vehicles.

Yet there could be mutually beneficial middle ground.

One possibility would be to permit Chinese groups to make cars and components in the U.S. rather than importing them, as Trump hinted. There’s an encouraging precedent. BYD’s electric bus plant in California is capable of producing vehicles that cost up to 30% less than other Unites states-made alternatives, even though each one uses 70% U.S. content by value, according to a research paper published in the npj Climate Action journal in January.

Establishing partnerships to manufacture cars or parts onshore is another option. Rivian RIVN.O is considering making its own lidar – a form of sensor used in assisted and autonomous driving – in collaboration with Chinese firms, CEO RJ Scaringe said last week. American carmakers including Ford and GM have decades of experience running joint ventures with their Chinese peers in China itself.

Licensing could also help keep jobs at home, while benefitting from China’s growing know-how. Ford plans to license battery technology from Contemporary Amperex Technology 300750.SZ to help develop an affordable electric vehicle priced below $30,000. While that sort of project is not banned, it has come up against opposition from lawmakers, so expressing clear support and facilitating such agreements would be a significant step.

Trump could in addition consider exemptions from tariffs or other rules for certain categories or quotas of goods. That has a precedent, too: lidar is exempt from incoming restrictions on Chinese hardware for connected cars.

Perhaps the simplest move would be to trim import tariffs: today’s 100% rate leaves ample room for adjustment.

China’s auto champions may end up with nothing from the Xi-Trump meeting this time around. But change looks increasingly like it’s just a matter of time.

Follow Katrina Hamlin on Bluesky and Linkedin.

CONTEXT NEWS

U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold talks on May 14 and 15 in Beijing