The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

By Una Galani

HONG KONG, March 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Is the global selloff in enterprise software and services stocks an overreaction? Maybe not in India. New tools released by Anthropic point towards increasing automation of work that "once required armies of consultants spending years mapping workflows", according to the owner of Claude large language models. The stakes are higher for the world's fourth-largest economy, where a reduction of IT services exports by Tata Consultancy Services TCS.NS, Infosys INFY.NS, Wipro WIPR.NS and others or a cut in the size of foreign firms' global capability centres could upend the macroeconomic stability the country has enjoyed.

Providing services to global companies including JPMorgan JPM.N, Goldman Sachs GS.N and Exxon Mobil XOM.N created massive wealth, spurred the rise of major cities like Hyderabad and Bengaluru and created a wall of money that has propelled the stock market, property prices and well-heeled Indians' spending power. Moreover, it also generates foreign exchange earnings that help slow the depreciation of the Indian rupee, which, in turn, keeps a check on imported inflation for the energy-hungry country.

An analysis of Reserve Bank of India data by Samiran Chakraborty, an economist at Citigroup, is sobering. It concludes growth in India's exports of software and other services has, in the recent past, more than offset the widening trade deficit in goods. With further support from remittances of Indians overseas, the current account deficit fell to 0.7% of GDP in the fiscal year to the end of March 2025.

In a scenario of no growth in software exports in fiscal year 2027, Chakraborty estimates most of India's projected surplus in services, roughly $20 billion, would be wiped out. That would weigh on an already weak rupee: in 2025, it declined 5% against the U.S. dollar and was the worst-performing major currency in Asia.

True, India's software services exports have grown 9.5% annually over the past decade – three times the rate of its goods exports – and Citi forecasts 8% for the year to March 2027. What's more, IT firms typically have contracts that last between three to seven years, and so AI disruption – in this case, clients renegotiating terms – ought to be gradual.

But there is widespread fear that automation tools like those from Anthropic could hollow out these industries faster. This fear is reflected in the 20% drop in India's benchmark Nifty IT index since the start of the year. Several executives at top global firms have also told Breakingviews they expect to have fewer people working in their India-based global capability centres in the coming years. Given India's heavy reliance on services in its external accounts, the software apocalypse spells trouble for returns on all rupee-denominated assets. That justifies selling the rumour and buying the fact.

Follow Una Galani on Linkedin and X.

CONTEXT NEWS

India’s Nifty IT Index has fallen 20% so far this year. The Indian rupee has declined 1.3% against the U.S. dollar over the same period.