The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Gabriel Rubin

WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - As the snow melts in Washington, Congress is thawing its trade powers. A rebellion among members of President Trump’s Republican Party will tee up resolutions to block his use of emergency powers to levy goods from trading partners, likely starting with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They face an almost assured presidential veto, and an imminent Supreme Court ruling remains a more potent White House threat. Yet it adds to mounting political blowback and internal chaos as November elections to decide control of Congress draw nearer.

Bucking their leadership in the House of Representatives, three Republicans on Tuesday joined with Democrats to allow votes of disapproval on Trump’s tariff policies, until now stymied by parliamentary maneuvers. The governing majority has slimmed to a knife-edge, thanks to special elections and retirements. With thirty Republican House members set to retire or run for other offices, grumbling backbenchers have freedom to derail their ostensible chief, Speaker Mike Johnson, if they see fit.

They would join four Republicans in the Senate, Congress’s upper chamber who already voted with Democrats to approve resolutions blocking Trump's Canada, Brazil, and global tariffs. As a rolling snowball gathers in size, Republican leadership risks losing control of a cascade of votes as long-quiet but uneasy members follow their colleagues into outright revolt.

It would be a repeat of recent history. After opposing the release of Justice Department materials related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Trump ultimately reversed his position once the dam broke on Republican support. To be clear, the scale of rebellion needed to quash tariffs is huge. A two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate would be required to override a White House veto, a remote possibility.

The fraying of Republicans’ united front still matters, though. The Supreme Court is likely to rule on the constitutionality of emergency tariffs as soon as next week, potentially rejecting an expansion of presidential power and forcing the administration to pay around $200 billion in refunds to affected businesses and consumers. A twin rebuke from the Court and Congress would cast the administration as overextending both its legal and political mandates, and leave the door open for legislators who have thus far abdicated their powers over trade policy. With Trump’s approval rating hovering at 40%, fear of electoral demise in midterm elections may prove a powerful motivator. For countries facing down trade threats, there is now a clear demonstration of emerging checks on Trump's tariff power. Hope springs eternal.

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CONTEXT NEWS

The U.S. House of Representatives on February 10 voted to reject a bid by Republican leaders to block legislative challenges to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a move that could allow opposition Democrats to pass resolutions undoing U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Lawmakers voted 217-214 to derail the plan to bar tariff challenges through July 31, with three Republicans joining 214 Democrats.