Salesforce (CRM) is back in the spotlight after announcing a multi-tournament partnership as an Official Tournament Supporter for the FIFA World Cup 2026 and FIFA Women's World Cup 2027, showcasing its Agentforce 360 AI platform.

The FIFA partnership arrives as Salesforce’s recent AI news, Anthropic stake, Contentful acquisition, guidance update, and dividend affirmation have all kept it in headlines, yet the share price is still down 25.6% year to date, with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 28.8%. At the same time, short term momentum has started to rebuild, with a 7 day share price return of 7.1%.

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With Salesforce shares down sharply over the past year despite a rebound in the last week and trading at what some models suggest is roughly a 20% discount to intrinsic value, you have to ask: Is this an AI leader on sale, or is the market already baking in much of the future growth story?

Most Popular Narrative: 42.8% Undervalued

With Salesforce last closing at $188.75 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $330.03, the gap between price and perceived worth is wide enough to focus on what is driving that view.

The "Agentic Upside" is the most compelling part of the bull case. Currently, Data Cloud and AI ARR stands at roughly $1.4 billion (up 114% YoY). If Agentforce continues its trajectory and triples this ARR as projected, it will trigger a revenue re-acceleration.

According to TomW6, the fair value hinges on how fast high margin AI and data subscriptions scale and what kind of profit share the Agentforce model can eventually support. The narrative also leans on assumptions about how long Salesforce can maintain this growth profile before settling into a steadier earnings path and what future earnings multiple the market might be willing to pay for that mix. The full breakdown connects these moving parts into one valuation story tied to that $330.03 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $330.03 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on Agentforce and Data Cloud adoption staying on course. Any slowdown or pricing pushback could quickly challenge that undervalued thesis.

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Next Steps

If this all sounds mixed, that is because the story involves clear risks as well as real potential that investors are weighing right now. Take a closer look at the numbers and sentiment yourself, and then check out the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.