Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent credited a four-stage pressure campaign with bringing Iran to the negotiating table, citing maximum pressure, “epic fury,” “economic fury,” and finally a naval blockade.

Speaking on CNBC on Wednesday, Bessent said the administration had not pursued regime change but had “changed the regime,” and that Tehran was willing to discuss its nuclear program for the first time since 1979.

He told the Economic Club of New York the night before that Washington was offering Iran carrots, with sticks held in reserve.

The Stick

President Donald Trump said in a social media post that Iran had assured Washington there were “no tolls, no insurance costs, and no other charges of any kind” being sought on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump warned that if the information proved false, negotiations would end immediately.

The ultimatum lands as Iran and Oman reportedly began discussions on a joint framework for managing Hormuz transit, including possible fee structures.

Bettors on Polymarket on Wednesday assigned roughly a 44% probability that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to pre-disruption norms by July 31. The December 31 market is at 86%.

The odds of the Iranian regime falling this year are at 10%, down from a high of over 50% during the war.

The Carrot

Iran’s upside is the 60-day U.S. waiver letting it sell crude on international markets again, the lifting of Washington’s naval blockade, and the conditional release of frozen assets. Brent has fallen below $75 a barrel for the first time since the conflict began, with the IEA estimating the UAE is now exporting at nearly 85% of pre-war levels.

Bessent added that Iranian oil sales would be invoiced in dollars under the framework, meaning every transaction runs through a payment system Washington can monitor and, if needed, shut down. Bessent framed it as part of a broader push to reinforce dollar dominance, citing Venezuela as another sanctioned producer returning to the dollar system.

Not everyone is convinced the calm holds. Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, said last week that crude’s slide was “entirely sentiment-driven” and that the market was front-running a best-case reopening of the strait.

Traders watching the crude unwind can track the move through the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) or major producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM).

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