Serve Robotics (SERV) has posted FY 2025 results that highlight a small but growing top line alongside sizable losses, with Q4 revenue at about US$0.9 million and a quarterly net loss of roughly US$34.3 million, or EPS of US$0.46 loss, while trailing 12 month revenue sits at roughly US$2.7 million against a net loss of about US$101.4 million and EPS of US$1.63 loss. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from around US$0.18 million in Q4 FY 2024 to US$0.88 million in Q4 FY 2025, while quarterly EPS shifted from a US$0.36 loss to a US$0.46 loss as management continues to spend heavily relative to its current scale. This leaves margins firmly in loss making territory even as the revenue base expands.

See our full analysis for Serve Robotics.

With the headline results on the table, the next step is to see how these margins, losses and revenue trends stack up against the widely followed narratives around Serve Robotics's growth potential and risk profile.

Revenue still tiny at about US$3 million

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Serve is generating roughly US$3 million of revenue, with analysts projecting around 46.6% annual growth from this low base.
• Consensus narrative focuses on this high projected top line growth, yet the latest quarter shows revenue at just US$0.9 million and prior quarters between about US$0.4 million and US$0.7 million. This means the bullish expectations for much larger revenues are starting from a very small actual run rate.
  • Analysts are modeling revenue growth rates near 295% per year over the next three years, while the trailing 12 month revenue is only US$2.7 million and quarterly revenue has remained under US$1 million so far.
  • This gap between projected growth and current scale is exactly what bulls point to as upside, but it also highlights how much of the optimistic case depends on execution that is not yet visible in the reported numbers.

Losses above US$100 million keep pressure on

• Trailing 12 month net loss is about US$101.4 million with EPS of US$1.63 loss, while individual 2025 quarters show losses from roughly US$13.2 million in Q1 to US$34.3 million in Q4 as spending runs well ahead of current revenue.
• Bears argue that this pattern supports a more cautious view, because losses have grown about 42.7% per year over five years and forecasts point to earnings declining around 5.1% per year for the next three years even as revenue is expected to grow quickly.
  • The Q4 2025 loss of about US$34.3 million on only US$0.9 million of revenue reflects very weak current margins, which lines up with concerns that the business may remain unprofitable for at least the next three years.
  • With analysts already expecting the company to stay loss making and shareholders having faced substantial dilution in the past year, the reported US$101.4 million trailing loss reinforces the bearish focus on cash burn and capital needs more than on near term earnings improvement.

Skeptics point to the more than US$100 million trailing loss and ongoing forecasts of declining earnings as reasons to stress test any long term thesis around Serve's autonomy and delivery model before committing fresh capital, and to weigh how much dilution or additional funding might be needed if losses stay high. 🐻 Serve Robotics Bear Case

P/B around 2x with heavy dilution risk

• The stock trades on roughly 2x P/B, which sits below the US Hospitality industry average of about 2.5x and a peer average near 2.1x, while shareholders have already experienced substantial dilution over the past year.
• Bullish investors argue that forecast revenue growth of roughly 46.6% per year on a trailing basis and even higher analyst growth assumptions could make the current 2x P/B look undemanding. Yet the combination of small US$3 million trailing revenue and ongoing unprofitability means that any re rating case has to factor in both growth potential and the possibility of further equity issuance.
  • Analysts are using price targets around US$18.25, compared with a current share price of US$9.09, so any move toward that number would rely on the market getting more comfortable with the company’s ability to grow into its book value despite current losses.
  • Because analysts also expect shares outstanding to rise by about 7% per year over the next three years, even bulls need to recognize that per share outcomes will depend not only on growth but also on how much dilution is required to fund that growth.

Bulls who see a long runway for autonomous delivery and high projected revenue growth may want to look closely at how those expectations are framed against current losses, dilution and valuation before deciding whether the bullish case still holds at today’s price. 🐂 Serve Robotics Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Serve Robotics on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Seen enough debate between the bull and bear views to know this stock is polarizing? Use the full set of numbers and charts to pressure test the story for yourself, then weigh both the potential rewards and the flagged risks with 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs

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Serve Robotics currently combines tiny trailing revenue of about US$3 million with losses above US$100 million and a history of shareholder dilution and weak margins.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.