• In early May 2026, American Express held its annual shareholder meeting, reported strong first-quarter 2026 results, enhanced Gold Card benefits, expanded co-brand and small-business AI programs, completed a US$1.75 billion bond issue, declared preferred dividends, and saw two shareholder proposals on political bias oversight and transgender healthcare reporting voted down.
• Together with the planned sale of its remaining stake in American Express Global Business Travel for about US$1.50 billion, these moves highlight a sharpened focus on core card and network operations, product enrichment for premium customers, and capital flexibility to support future corporate priorities.
• We’ll now consider how the Global Business Travel exit and refreshed Gold Card benefits might influence American Express’s existing investment narrative.

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American Express Investment Narrative Recap

To own American Express, you generally need to believe its premium, closed-loop model can keep attracting high-spending customers while controlling reward and servicing costs. In the near term, the key catalyst is management’s ability to sustain spending and fee momentum after a strong first quarter, while the biggest risk remains rising competitive and rewards pressure in premium cards. The latest shareholder meeting outcomes and financing moves do not materially change that risk-reward balance.

The recent refresh of the American Express Gold Card is especially relevant here. Richer travel earn rates, added Hertz status, and broader dining credits all reinforce the premium value proposition that underpins card fee growth and retention, but they also add to variable customer engagement expenses. How effectively American Express turns these enhanced benefits into sustained spend and loyalty, without letting rewards costs run ahead of revenue, will be central to the short term catalyst around earnings delivery.

But against this positive backdrop, investors should still pay attention to the risk that rising rewards and benefit costs could eventually...

American Express' narrative projects $85.7 billion revenue and $13.5 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 10.6% yearly revenue growth and a $3.5 billion earnings increase from $10.0 billion.

Uncover how American Express' forecasts yield a $378.94 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most cautious analysts were already assuming only US$94.8 billion of revenue and US$14.0 billion of earnings by 2029, so if you worry about decelerating travel and entertainment spend, this more pessimistic view shows how sharply expectations can differ and why fresh news like the Gold Card upgrade and GBT sale could shift those assumptions in different directions.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on American Express - why the stock might be worth as much as 39% more than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your American Express research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free American Express research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate American Express' overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In American Express?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.