• In early May 2026, analyst channel checks raised concerns about On Holding’s premium positioning as core sneakers appeared heavily discounted at outlets and retailers, while the company also went through a second CEO change in a year and issued revenue guidance that fell short of earlier expectations.
• These developments have sharpened investor focus on whether On Holding can protect its margins and brand strength while expanding into Asia and EMEA and investing in manufacturing innovation such as robotics in its new South Korea facility.
• We’ll now examine how rising discounting at wholesale partners may alter On Holding’s investment narrative around premium growth and margins.

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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own On Holding, you need confidence that the brand can stay premium, protect margins, and grow globally even as it scales. The recent outlet discounting and softer revenue guidance directly touch the short term catalyst of mix shifting toward higher margin DTC and international growth, while reinforcing the key risk that heavier wholesale promotions could erode pricing power and profitability. The CEO transition adds uncertainty but does not yet appear to change the core long term thesis.

The 2026 guidance for at least 23% constant currency net sales growth and better than expected margin expansion is the announcement that matters most here. It sets a constructive operational backdrop against which the outlet markdowns and wholesale pressure now need to be assessed, especially as On spends on manufacturing innovation like robotics in South Korea to support scale without sacrificing unit economics.

Yet against this upbeat guidance, the risk that heavier wholesale discounting chips away at premium pricing is something investors should be aware of...

On Holding's narrative projects CHF5.3 billion revenue and CHF624.9 million earnings by 2029. This requires 20.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CHF421 million from CHF203.7 million today.

Uncover how On Holding's forecasts yield a $56.41 fair value, a 58% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most bearish analysts were already assuming about 23% annual revenue growth and earnings near CHF 723.0 million by 2029, yet this outlet discounting and premium positioning risk could still push their more pessimistic narrative further.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on On Holding - why the stock might be worth as much as 81% more than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free On Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.