• In May 2026, Instacart and Ace Hardware announced a nationwide partnership to offer same-day delivery of hardware, grilling, and lawn-and-garden products, with no markups and a promotional US$15 discount on qualifying orders.
• Instacart also rolled out a self-serve retail media suite that lets retailers run and measure their own on- and off-platform campaigns, deepening its role as a retail technology and advertising partner rather than just a delivery intermediary.
• Now we’ll examine how Instacart’s expanded Ace Hardware partnership and new self-serve retail media tools influence its broader investment narrative.

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Maplebear Investment Narrative Recap

To own Maplebear, you need to believe Instacart can keep converting offline spending into profitable, tech-enabled grocery and essentials commerce while scaling higher-margin ads and retail tools. The expanded Ace Hardware partnership broadens use cases beyond food, but the more immediate catalyst still sits in advertising growth, with a key risk around intensifying competition and retailer renegotiations. This announcement modestly reinforces the partnership story without changing that core risk-reward balance in the near term.

The rollout of self-serve retail media tools inside Instacart Ads Manager is the most relevant update here, because it strengthens Instacart’s pitch as an advertising and data partner, not just a delivery app. For investors focused on catalysts, this matters: retailer-facing ad tools connect directly to the thesis that more of Instacart’s growth can come from higher-margin media revenue, which could help offset any future pressure on transaction economics from tighter pricing or no-markup arrangements.

Yet behind the Ace expansion and new ad tools, there is a less obvious risk investors should be aware of if retailer pricing power keeps shifting and...

Maplebear's narrative projects $4.9 billion revenue and $800.3 million earnings by 2029. This requires 9.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $362 million from $438.0 million.

Uncover how Maplebear's forecasts yield a $50.14 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest analysts were expecting revenue to decline about 3.5 percent a year and earnings to fall from about US$505,000,000 to roughly US$451,000,000 by 2029, so compared with the consensus view they paint a much more pessimistic picture of Instacart’s ability to grow profitably, even as new partnerships and retail media tools raise fresh questions about whether those cautious assumptions still hold.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Maplebear - why the stock might be worth just $50.14!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Maplebear research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Maplebear research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Maplebear's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.