SOFTS-Cocoa hits 3-week peak as El Nino looms, sugar steadies

LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - Cocoa futures on ICE hit three-week highs on Wednesday amid fears that the El Nino weather pattern will harm next season's output, while sugar steadied.

COCOA

  • London cocoa LCCc2 rose 1.5% to £3,202 a ton at 1102 GMT, having settled up 6.4% on Tuesday. The contract earlier hit its highest since late May at £3,257.

  • The market has been supported by indications that the El Nino weather pattern may significantly crimp 2026/27 output in West Africa and in No. 3 producer Ecuador.

  • Broker StoneX said analysts were already reducing their forecasts for top grower Ivory Coast after crop surveys showed "no meaningful recovery of (cocoa) pod setting and counts".

  • The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees a 63% probability of a very strong or "super El Niño" heading into 2027.

  • "If the forecast materialises, the El Niño would be one of the largest in NOAA’s historical record dating back to 1950," said Rabobank.

  • Elsewhere, Ghana and Ivory Coast have agreed to start the 2026/27 cocoa season one month early, on September 1, and to harmonize the guaranteed minimum farmer price for the season.

  • New York cocoa CCc2 gained 1.4% to $4,295 a ton.

SUGAR

  • Raw sugar SBc1 edged up 0.1% to 13.84 cents per lb, having hit a near two-month low of 13.56 cents on Tuesday.

  • Energy price declines continue to pressure the market by tempting cane mills to produce less ethanol fuel and more sugar.

  • Brazil's Jalles Machado JALL3.SA expects its 2026/27 sugar production to fall by 4.2% to 418,100 tons, while ethanol output is seen rising 18%.

  • Longer term however, there are fears El Nino will curb production.

  • White sugar LSUc1 gained 1.7% to $449.90 a ton.

  • Ukraine 's white sugar output is expected to fall to 1.2-1.3 million metric tons this year, from 1.7 million tons in 2025, the country's deputy economy minister told Reuters.

COFFEE

  • Arabica coffee KCc2 fell 1.7% to $2.6820 per lb, having settled up 5.2% on Tuesday.

  • Arabica is being supported by concerns over El Nino and low levels of certified stocks.

  • Robusta coffee LRCc2 edged up 0.3% to $3,609 a ton, having gained 2% on Tuesday.


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