S&P Global (SPGI) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of about US$3.9 billion and basic EPS of US$3.76, backed by trailing twelve month revenue of roughly US$15.3 billion and EPS of US$14.67. The company has seen revenue move from about US$3.6 billion in Q4 2024 to US$3.9 billion in Q4 2025, while basic EPS stepped up from US$2.85 to US$3.76 over the same period. Investors are weighing those figures alongside earnings growth forecasts around 10.65% and a trailing net margin of 29.2%, which points to tight cost control. Taken together, the latest print gives investors a clean read on solid profitability and is likely to keep margins and earnings quality at the center of the story this season.

See our full analysis for S&P Global.

With the numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the dominant market narratives around S&P Global and where those narratives might need to be updated.

TTM earnings outpace revenue growth

• On a trailing twelve month basis, revenue is about US$15.3b while net income is about US$4.5b, which lines up with the 29.2% net margin cited in the analysis and compares to revenue of about US$14.2b and net income of about US$3.9b a year earlier.
• Analysts' consensus view connects that earnings strength to strong capital markets activity, pointing to higher IPO, M&A and debt issuance as drivers for S&P Global’s Ratings division. However, the 6.4% revenue growth forecast means you are counting on roughly 10.65% earnings growth to keep doing the heavy lifting.
  • That combination of mid single digit revenue growth and double digit earnings growth is consistent with the last 12 months, where earnings rose 16.1% alongside revenue increases from about US$13.8b to US$15.3b.
  • The consensus narrative also highlights growth from private markets and energy transition products, and the higher 29.2% margin versus 27.1% a year earlier fits with the idea that newer products and mix may be helping profitability even if overall revenue growth is forecast below the broader US market.

Margin profile supports bullish case

• Across FY 2025, quarterly net income excluding extra items ranged from US$1.1b to US$1.2b on revenue around US$3.8b to US$3.9b, backing up the trailing 29.2% net margin that is higher than the 27.1% margin cited for the prior year.
• Consensus narrative supports the bullish side by arguing that expanding products, such as energy transition and climate offerings that grew about 30%, and private markets revenue that grew about 30% in Ratings, can support margins. The current figures partly back that up but also set a bar for those segments to keep pulling their weight.
  • The margin lift from 27.1% to 29.2% over the trailing 12 months aligns with the idea that the business can earn more from each dollar of revenue, which supports the bullish claim that margin improvement is already visible rather than just a future story.
  • At the same time, forecasts calling for margins to move from 22.0% to 29.0% over three years may look less aggressive when today’s net margin is already at 29.2%, so as an investor you might ask whether the next few years are about holding this level rather than expanding it further.

On this kind of margin profile, bulls argue there is more to the story than just headline growth, with cash generative earnings at the center of their thesis. 🐂 S&P Global Bull Case

Valuation tension at US$401.08 share price

• At a share price of US$401.08 and a trailing P/E of 27.2x, S&P Global trades above the broader US Capital Markets industry average of 23.1x, while the DCF fair value in the data sits at about US$375.79, below the current market level.
• More cautious investors point to that valuation gap, noting that the price sits above DCF fair value and carries a P/E premium to the wider industry, even though the analysis also cites an analyst price target of 610.50 that indicates potential upside from today’s level.
  • The DCF fair value of about US$375.79 compared to the US$401.08 share price supports the bearish view that the current market value already builds in healthy expectations for 10.65% earnings growth, leaving less room if forecasts change.
  • On the other hand, a P/E that is slightly below the 28.8x peer average and the 610.50 target show why some investors see room for further gains. This keeps the debate active around whether to focus more on the premium to the industry or on the relative position versus peers and the analyst target.

If you are weighing whether the current premium is justified, it helps to see how bears frame the risks around growth, margins and price. 🐻 S&P Global Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for S&P Global on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? Take a fresh look at the data, back your own view, and turn it into a clear narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding S&P Global.

Explore Alternatives

S&P Global’s current valuation, with a 27.2x P/E and a share price above the DCF fair value, leaves limited room if earnings forecasts change.

If that kind of pricing makes you cautious about paying up for growth, take a look at our 51 high quality undervalued stocks that could offer more room for error.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.