Spire Global (SPIR) has drawn fresh attention after signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Germany’s Diehl Defence at the ILA Berlin Airshow 2026. The agreement focuses on satellite-based missile warning and intelligence capabilities.

The MoU with Diehl Defence comes at a time when momentum in Spire Global's share price has been mixed in the short term. The 1-day share price return is down 7.88% and the 7-day share price return is up 6.24%. These are supported by stronger recent trends, including a 90-day share price return of 67.71% and a year-to-date share price return of 133.42%, alongside a 3-year total shareholder return of 231.17%. This is despite a 5-year total shareholder return that is down 77.10%.

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With Spire Global’s share price up very strongly year to date and only a 14.5% gap to the average analyst target, the key question is whether recent gains still leave upside on the table or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.5% Undervalued

With Spire Global's fair value in the most followed narrative sitting at $20.38 against a last close of $18.23, the valuation hinges heavily on how on orbit data and partnerships play out.

Growing government and commercial demand for high-frequency, real-time Earth observation data, driven by increased climate change monitoring, global security needs, and expanded ESG mandates, positions Spire to capture larger and more recurring revenue streams from weather, defense, and scientific agencies worldwide.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Analysts are building this fair value on fast top line expansion, a future profit margin shift and a rich earnings multiple that few data providers command. Want to see how those assumptions stack together?

Result: Fair Value of $20.38 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are clear pressure points here, including dependence on large government contracts and the revenue gap created by the sale of the maritime business.

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Next Steps

Sentiment around Spire Global is clearly mixed, so if you are weighing the trade off between risks and rewards, it makes sense to review the full picture now and assess the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.