Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of about US$1.8 billion and basic EPS of US$1.28, setting a clear marker for how the year is starting. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$1,073.8 million in Q4 2024 to US$1,036.6 million in Q1 2025, then to US$1,760.0 million in Q1 2026. Over the same period, quarterly basic EPS shifted from US$0.42 to US$0.48 and then to US$1.28, giving investors a concrete view of how the top and bottom lines are tracking into the current year. With earnings over the last twelve months growing 35.3% and net profit margins improving to 15.4%, this set of results puts profitability at the center of the story for anyone weighing the balance of risks and rewards.

See our full analysis for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up with the widely followed narratives about SQM, and where the latest earnings might challenge what the market thinks it knows about the stock.

Q1 profit nearly doubles recent quarters

• Q1 2026 net income of US$364.7 million compares with US$183.8 million in Q4 2025 and US$178.4 million in Q3 2025, so quarterly profit is now roughly twice the level seen through most of last year.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is how this quarterly step up feeds into the trailing 12 month earnings growth of 35.3%, while bulls are assuming earnings could keep growing at about 16.55% per year.
  • Bullish investors point to higher lithium and specialty volumes as a key driver, and the move from US$88.4 million in Q2 2025 net income to US$364.7 million in Q1 2026 is consistent with a business that is currently scaling profit faster than revenue.
  • At the same time, the data also shows a five year earnings decline of 15.5% per year, so anyone leaning on the bullish view needs to square this strong recent quarter with a longer history that has not been a straight line.

Consistent outperformance like Q1 is exactly what bullish investors say is needed to support their higher growth assumptions and long term view of SQM's lithium and specialty chemicals story. The dedicated bull thesis sets out how that could play out over time 🐂 Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Bull Case

Margins and valuation pull in different directions

• The trailing net profit margin sits at 15.4%, up from 13.5% a year earlier, while the trailing P/E of 29.4x is below the peer average of 65.1x but above the US Chemicals industry at 26.7x.
• Bears argue that rising global lithium supply and potential changes in Chilean taxes and royalties could pressure margins and make it harder to justify even a modest premium to the industry P/E.
  • The margin lift to 15.4% over the last year does not yet reflect the compression that cautious investors worry about if new projects and environmental rules lift costs, so the current snapshot does not confirm those concerns but also does not rule them out.
  • With the stock at US$83.94 against a single allowed analyst price target of US$81.05, the current price is just above that reference point. This gives bears room to argue that any hit to margins would quickly make the stock look expensive at 29.4x trailing earnings.

Skeptical investors are watching closely to see if recent margin strength holds up as new supply and policy changes come through, and the detailed bear case sets out the main pressure points to monitor 🐻 Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile Bear Case

DCF fair value and dividend track record

• The stock trades at US$83.94 versus a DCF fair value of about US$116.69 and a trailing 12 month net income of US$815.3 million on revenue of about US$5.3b, while the dividend track record in the data is described as unstable.
• Consensus style narratives highlight that investors are weighing this apparent 28.1% gap to DCF fair value and solid recent profitability against an earnings history that has declined 15.5% per year over five years and an income stream that has not been consistent.
  • The combination of a higher trailing margin at 15.4% and a P/E that is below the 65.1x peer average gives support to those who see room between current pricing and the DCF fair value estimate.
  • On the other hand, the unstable dividend record in the data reinforces the idea that relying only on the DCF number, without considering past earnings volatility and payout swings, could give a less complete picture than many income focused investors would want.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Whether you read this as cautiously optimistic or slightly concerned about the balance of risks and rewards, you should still move quickly and test the numbers yourself. Start with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Despite recent strength, SQM has a 15.5% annual earnings decline over five years and an unstable dividend record that may concern income focused investors.

If you prefer steadier income and potential value compared with this mixed history, compare SQM against 9 dividend fortresses today and see what best matches your portfolio goals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.