Stallion Capital says family offices boost 2026 private credit allocations as bonds lag real returns

  • Stallion Capital published a 2026 outlook showing family offices increasing private credit allocations as higher rates, inflation, volatility weaken traditional fixed income.
  • BlackRock’s 2025 survey: nearly one-third of family offices plan to raise private credit exposure; alternatives average 42% of portfolios.
  • Goldman Sachs data: average private credit allocation rose to 4% from 3% since 2023; zero-exposure share fell to 26% from 36%.
  • First-lien real estate debt cited at 8%-10% gross returns, 0.15-0.35 correlation to equities and public bonds, 2.1% volatility, -3% max drawdown in 2022.
  • Model shift of USD 50 million from bonds to private credit in a USD 1 billion portfolio lifts real return by 19 bps; implies USD 19 million annual gain for USD 10 billion.


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