Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick called the crypto bottom Friday, saying Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) drop to $59,000 marked the lowest point of this cycle and that crypto winter is over.

Why Kendrick Thinks $59,000 Was The Low

Kendrick’s call rests on three converging catalysts arriving simultaneously Friday. Oil prices fell 1.5% to $86 per barrel as Trump announced a potential US-Iran peace deal could come this weekend ahead of the G7 summit. 

SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) $75 billion IPO launched, which Kendrick argued pulled capital out of Bitcoin ETFs as investors sold to free up cash for the offering rather than exiting crypto on fundamental concerns.

“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday note. “Winter is over,” he added.

The call represents a direct reversal of his February note, where he warned of pain and capitulation and cut his near-term Bitcoin target to $50,000.

Currently, Bitcoin trades near $64,000, recovering from its $59,000 wick low earlier this week. 

The SAR flipped bullish at $59,168, sitting below price for the first time in weeks, a meaningful short-term signal. 

Three Conditions Kendrick Needs To See Confirmed

Kendrick was clear that his call requires verification across three specific data points. Bitcoin ETFs need to post net inflows today. 

Oil prices need to continue declining. Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) needs to announce a Bitcoin purchase on Monday.

Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $5 billion in net outflows since mid-May, one of the sharpest selling stretches since inception. 

If those flows reverse today alongside falling oil and a Strategy buy, Kendrick argues the bottom confirmation is complete.

What Happens If The Call Is Wrong

The bearish scenario is straightforward. Losing the $59,000 wick low invalidates the SAR signal and opens a move toward $55,000 to $56,000. 

Key resistance overhead sits at $65,000, then $68,157 at the 20 SMA, then $74,426 at the 50 SMA. 

Reclaiming $65,000 on the back of confirmed ETF inflows and oil declining targets $68,000 to $71,000 as the first recovery leg.

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