• 2026 will once again be a “noisy” year: expect ongoing debates around Trump’s tariffs, Fed rate cuts, a volatile labor market, an AI bubble, GPU depreciation cycles, and more.
• Based on three major features of the 2025 market, media selected several “most accurate forecasters.”

As in 2025, 2026 is set to be full of debate, with contention over Trump tariffs, Federal Reserve rate cuts, unstable employment, the AI bubble, GPU depreciation schedules, etc.
Based on three key features in 2025—the S&P 500 rising 17%, a sharp rebound after “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a spiral sell-off, and gold surging over 60%—media outlets have picked several “most accurate forecasters.” Most Wall Street strategists were optimistic about 2025, but only a few had target prices close to the actual figure (6845.5 points).

Prefer US Stocks

Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra was one such forecaster. His year-end 2025 S&P target was 6750, as he believes Trump’s deregulatory and low-tax policies will benefit US economic growth.

For 2026, Kabra projects the S&P 500 index(SPX.US) to reach 7300 by year-end, with a bullish outlook on consumer cyclical stocks, financials, and industrials, which he sees benefiting from “big and beautiful” tax reforms.

“My main call, just as in 2025, is to prioritize US stocks. This is about America’s reindustrialization and everything tied to it,” he said.

DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas gave a nearly perfect S&P target of 6,840 for 2025, betting on a resilient US economy. He hasn’t published a 2026 target, but thinks materials, real estate, and utilities could outperform in the new year.

Morningstar chief market strategist David Sekera and Carson Research’s chief market strategist Ryan Detrick both correctly anticipated the post-tariff rebound.

Focus on AI “Application” Winners

For 2026, Sekera believes investors should favor companies that benefit from AI, not “AI builders.” “2026 could be when the market focuses more on companies driving revenue growth and using AI to improve efficiency in their products and services, rather than just hardware makers,” he said.

He is emphasizing AI applications this year, naming Clorox Company(CLX.US), Mondelez International, Inc. Class A(MDLZ.US), ServiceNow, Inc.(NOW.US), and Kraft Heinz Company(KHC.US) as examples.

Detrick expects economic performance in 2026 to exceed expectations despite labor market weakness and sees the commodity boom continuing.

“All in all, we still like equities—no doubt. But, compared to bonds, increasing commodity exposure—something that worked well in 2025—should still be effective in 2026,” he added.

Increase Gold Allocation

Finally, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach—the new “Bond King”—got the gold surge exactly right. After gold rose 27% in 2024, few expected it to rise another 60%, but Gundlach’s forecast was spot-on.

Most strategists capped their 2025 gold forecasts around $3,000/oz before gradually raising targets during the year, but Gundlach started above his peers, predicting above $4,000/oz as early as March. As investors increasingly worried about rising US government debt and fiat currency risks, he doubled down.

“I think people view gold as a store of value amid current geopolitical turmoil, tariffs, huge debts, and all kinds of uncertainties, wondering how we’ll cope with these,” he said in an interview last May. “In that sense, gold is real monetary value.”

For the future, Gundlach recommends a portfolio including 20% cash, 25% bonds, 10-15% physical assets (like gold), and 40% international equities.