Why StoneCo’s latest earnings matter for shareholders

StoneCo (NasdaqGS:STNE) just released second quarter 2026 results that show higher revenue but lower quarterly net income and earnings per share compared with a year ago. That mixed picture is driving the latest stock reaction.

At a share price of $9.55, StoneCo has seen the 1 month share price return fall 11.25% and the year to date share price return fall 34.99%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 25.03%. This suggests recent momentum has weakened as investors weigh stronger revenue against softer quarterly profit.

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Bulls argue StoneCo’s revenue progress and six month profit support patience. Bears point to the weaker quarterly net income and the share price slide. Determining which case fits the current valuation better is the next question.

Most Popular Narrative: 37.2% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, StoneCo’s fair value of $15.21 sits well above the recent $9.55 close. That gap is anchored in how future earnings, margins and capital returns are expected to evolve under a 9.89% discount rate.

Cross-selling of end-to-end financial solutions (payments, digital banking, working capital credit) is increasing client engagement and wallet share, demonstrated by growing deposit balances (+36% year-over-year) and credit portfolio expansion (+25% sequentially), supporting higher recurring revenue and long-term net earnings improvement.

Want to see what is baked into that $15.21 fair value for StoneCo? The narrative leans heavily on revenue resilience, shifting profit margins and a tighter share count. Curious which earnings and valuation assumptions bridge today’s price to that target and how long that support is expected to last? The full story brings these moving parts together into one clear forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $15.21 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this narrative can still be shaken if slower Total Payment Volume growth persists or if higher risk credit provisions continue to pressure StoneCo’s margins.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play for StoneCo, it makes sense to move fast and test the narrative against your own expectations. To weigh the potential trade off between upside drivers and the issues investors are monitoring, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.