The new 25% US tariffs on many Brazilian imports and the threat of reciprocal measures from Brazil are reshaping risk for companies tied to US Brazil trade. For investors, this is less about headlines and more about which stocks carry hidden exposure to these tensions. This article looks at 3 stocks from the US Brazil Trade Dispute Impact Stocks and Sector Players screener that could face meaningful pressure from tariffs, supply chain friction, or digital policy disputes. Understanding how their business models connect to cross border flows can help you decide which risks to approach with extra caution.

StoneCo (STNE)

Overview: StoneCo is a Brazilian fintech that helps merchants accept electronic payments and manage sales across in store, online, and mobile channels, while also offering digital banking, prepayment, and credit solutions under brands like Stone, tonstone, and paggar.me.

Operations: StoneCo generates essentially all of its R$13.6b revenue from Financial Services in Brazil, with only minor segment adjustments.

Market Cap: US$2.7b

StoneCo operates within Brazil's digital payments system at a time when US tariffs and criticism of policies like PIX raise the risk of additional regulatory noise around its core market. On paper, the business appears to have high profit margins, accelerating share buybacks, and analyst models that include relatively healthy long term earnings expectations. However, earnings forecasts have already been reduced and its funding relies entirely on external borrowing rather than customer deposits. In addition, there is pressure from higher Brazilian interest rates, recent target cuts from UBS and Bank of America, and a board that is still bedding in. As a result, StoneCo may be viewed less as a straightforward value opportunity and more as an investment that is closely tied to the stability of Brazil's payment infrastructure.

StoneCo’s high margins and buybacks can distract from a funding model built on external borrowing, not deposits. Before the next policy shock hits Brazil’s payment rails, review the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs (2 are major!)

Embraer (BOVESPA:EMBJ3)

Overview: Embraer is a Brazilian aerospace company that designs, builds, and sells commercial jets, business jets, military aircraft, and related systems, while also providing maintenance, training, and technical support services worldwide.

Operations: Embraer generates most of its roughly R$43.1b revenue from aircraft manufacturing, led by Commercial Aviation (R$13.4b), Executive Aviation (R$12.5b), Services & Support (R$10.8b), and Defense & Security (R$5.8b), with a smaller contribution from Other activities.

Market Cap: R$58.2b

Embraer sits at the center of US Brazil trade risk because it exports high value aircraft and parts into a market that is already subject to tariffs and could see new 25% levies extended or broadened. The stock screens as expensive against a discounted cash flow estimate, with a high P/E, thin 3.9% net margin, and an R$803.2m one off loss weighing on recent results. All funding comes from external borrowing rather than customer deposits. At the same time, the company is pushing through a large backlog, has earnings forecast to grow faster than the Brazilian market, and keeps winning orders and certifications in places like India and the UAE. For investors, the question is how much trade and margin risk is already priced into Embraer’s premium valuation.

Embraer’s rich P/E, thin 3.9% net margin and a recent R$803.2m loss raise a tough question: how much trade and earnings risk is really baked in to its premium story? Get the full picture in the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Cargills Bank (COSE:CBNK.N0000)

Overview: Cargills Bank is a Sri Lankan commercial bank that serves individuals, small businesses, corporates, and the agriculture sector with a mix of savings and current accounts, loans, cards, trade finance, and digital banking services.

Operations: Cargills Bank generates about LKR 4.5b from Banking services and LKR 693m from Treasury and Investments, with total revenue of roughly LKR 5.2b sourced entirely in Sri Lanka.

Market Cap: LKR 9.9b

Cargills Bank might catch your eye as a Sri Lankan lender tied to retail and agri lending, but the picture appears fragile. Bad loans sit at 7.6% with provisioning coverage below 100%, net profit margins are 9.3%, and ROE is 3.3%. Earnings for the latest quarter declined, with net income and EPS both lower year over year, yet the stock trades on a 20.5x P/E and above an estimated cash flow value of LKR 0.88 per share. With shareholder dilution and limited visibility on growth, Cargills Bank may be a bank where investors need to be very sure the risk is worth the premium.

Cargills Bank’s high 20.5x P/E, weak 3.3% ROE and 7.6% bad loans with thin coverage suggest risk may be building, not easing. Before that tension snaps, read the 4 warning signs (1 is major!)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.