Sunrun (RUN) Trailing Profitability Of US$565 Million Tests Bearish Narratives On Valuation
Sunrun Inc. RUN | 0.00 |
Sunrun (RUN) just posted Q1 2026 results with revenue of US$722.2 million and basic EPS of US$0.71, setting a clear marker against a current share price of US$13.80. Over recent quarters the company has seen revenue move from US$504.3 million in Q1 2025 to US$1.16 billion in Q4 2025 and basic EPS range from US$0.22 to US$1.22 across 2025, while trailing 12 month EPS sits at US$2.44 on revenue of US$3.2 billion. With that backdrop, the latest quarter keeps the focus on how sustainably Sunrun is converting its top line into profit and what that implies for margins.
See our full analysis for Sunrun.With the headline numbers in place, the next step is to set these results against the most widely shared Sunrun narratives to see which storylines hold up and which ones the latest margins begin to challenge.
TTM profits reach US$565 million
- On a trailing 12 month basis, Sunrun reports net income of US$565.3 million on US$3.2 billion of revenue and basic EPS of US$2.44, compared with US$447.6 million of net income on US$3.0 billion of revenue and EPS of US$1.95 at the end of Q4 2025.
- What stands out for a more bullish view is that this trailing profit picture follows a period when trailing net income was reported as a loss of more than US$2.4 billion as recently as Q3 2025. This means any optimistic thesis now has concrete earnings to point to rather than just future forecasts.
- Supporters who focus on potential earnings growth of about 3.7% a year can now reference a positive base of US$565.3 million of trailing net income instead of multibillion dollar losses.
- However, anyone leaning bullish also has to weigh that this earnings growth rate and the roughly 6% revenue growth forecast are both below the broader US market figures cited. As a result, the story is more about earnings stability than outperformance.
P/E of 5.7x versus peers above 38x
- Sunrun is trading on a trailing P/E of 5.7x, compared with a peer average of 64.5x, an industry average of 38.4x and a US market average of 19.3x, while the share price is US$13.80.
- Bears often argue that low multiples signal concern about financial resilience, and the data here gives them some specific points to focus on.
- Debt is flagged as not being well covered by operating cash flow over the trailing 12 months, so the low P/E sits alongside a material balance sheet risk rather than a clean bill of health.
- Share price volatility over the past three months and significant insider selling in the most recent quarter also feed into a cautious narrative that the discount may be compensation for higher risk rather than an obvious bargain.
Quarterly net income swings from US$16.6 million to US$279.8 million
- Looking across the last few quarters, Sunrun’s net income excluding extra items moved from US$50.0 million in Q1 2025 to US$279.8 million in Q2, then US$16.6 million in Q3 and US$101.3 million in Q4 2025, before landing at US$167.6 million in Q1 2026.
- What is most useful from a general market opinion is how this sequence of profits lines up with the more moderate forecasts. This suggests investors are weighing sizeable quarter to quarter swings against relatively modest expected growth.
- The trailing EPS path, from a loss of US$12.81 per share at Q4 2024 to a profit of US$2.44 per share by Q1 2026, offers a sharp contrast to the 3.7% annual earnings growth forecast, which is a much steadier figure.
- At the same time, revenue on a trailing basis grew from US$2.0 billion at Q4 2024 to US$3.2 billion by Q1 2026, while the forecast is for about 6% annual revenue growth, so the recent pace in the reported data and the more modest forward view do not fully match.
If you want to see how other investors are piecing these numbers together into different storylines, it is worth checking the broader mix of viewpoints and valuation angles in one place using the Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives.
Next Steps
Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Sunrun's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.
If this mix of cautious and optimistic signals feels finely balanced, treat it as a prompt to review the numbers yourself and decide where you stand. Start with the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
See What Else Is Out There
Sunrun’s low P/E, uneven quarterly earnings and flagged debt coverage issues all point to higher risk rather than a straightforwardly cheap stock.
If that mix makes you uneasy, it is worth balancing your portfolio research by checking companies screened for stronger financial resilience through the 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
