Shareholders might have noticed that Surf Air Mobility Inc. (NYSE:SRFM) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to US$0.79 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 75% toUS$0.29 per share. Revenues of US$30m did beat expectations by 4.5%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, Surf Air Mobility's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$129.7m in 2026. This would be a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 15% from last year to US$0.78. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$128.9m and US$0.66 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Surf Air Mobility even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a noticeable increase in per-share losses.

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$5.03per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Surf Air Mobility analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.50. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Surf Air Mobility's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 37% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 26% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Surf Air Mobility is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Surf Air Mobility's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Surf Air Mobility going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Surf Air Mobility is showing 6 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those can't be ignored...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.