Surgery Partners (SGRY) has just wrapped up Q1 2026, with its latest reported quarter, Q4 2025, showing revenue of US$885 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.12, alongside net income excluding extra items of a US$15 million loss. Looking back over 2025, the company reported revenue increasing from US$776 million in Q1 to US$885 million in Q4, while quarterly basic EPS losses ranged from US$0.30 in Q1 to US$0.02 in Q2 and US$0.18 in Q3. This presents a picture in which the top line is scaling, while margins remain weak and management appears focused on putting profitability on a firmer footing.

See our full analysis for Surgery Partners.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this mix of revenue changes and ongoing losses aligns with the main narratives investors follow around Surgery Partners and where those stories may need updating.

Trailing losses still meaningful at US$77.9 million

• On a trailing 12 month basis to Q4 2025, Surgery Partners reported total revenue of US$3.3b and a net income loss excluding extra items of US$77.9 million, compared with a quarterly loss of US$15 million in Q4 2025 on revenue of US$885 million.
• Consensus narrative assumes margins can move from a trailing loss into low single digit profitability, yet the current TTM loss of US$77.9 million and five year loss growth of about 11.9% per year show how much needs to change for that view to play out.
  • Analysts in the balanced view expect earnings to reach US$45.5 million by around 2029, which contrasts sharply with the present loss position.
  • They are also assuming revenue growth of 5.5% per year, compared with the 7.5% figure given for revenue growth in the wider context. This means expectations for margin improvement are doing a lot of the work in that story.

Revenue trend vs market and bearish worries

• Revenue tied to the 7.5% growth context is described as slower than the broader US market at 11.2% per year, and the trailing 12 month revenue of US$3.3b compares with US$3.1b a year earlier in the dataset, while TTM EPS remains a loss of US$0.61.
• Bears argue that slower execution on acquisitions and pressure on reimbursement could restrain growth, and the current revenue and earnings profile leaves room for those concerns.
  • The bearish narrative points to revenue growth assumptions of 8.9% per year and a move from a profit margin of around a 5.6% loss to a 0.6% profit margin in three years, yet the latest TTM figures still show both losses and losses that have widened over five years.
  • With only trailing losses and a loss making EPS base in the recent period, any delay relative to those growth and margin assumptions would weigh directly on the cautious case that already uses a relatively modest earnings level in its framework.

Skeptics focus on how current losses and debt costs could cap the upside, so it is worth seeing how their full case fits alongside the latest numbers 🐻 Surgery Partners Bear Case.

Low P/S and DCF gap support bullish case

• At a current share price of US$14.26 and a P/S of 0.6x compared with a peer average of 1.6x and US Healthcare industry average of 1.2x, the stock sits well below those benchmarks and also about 64.9% below a DCF fair value of US$40.61.
• Bulls point to this combination of low sales multiple and DCF fair value gap as support for a recovery story, and the earnings forecasts in the data are central to that argument.
  • Analysts in the bullish view are assuming earnings can rise from a TTM loss of US$77.9 million to US$53.8 million by around 2029, with revenue growing 7.9% per year and margins moving from about a 2.4% loss to a 1.3% profit margin.
  • Those expectations sit alongside a projected earnings growth rate of roughly 91.66% per year, which explains why some investors see the current discount to both the 18.05 analyst target and the DCF fair value as meaningful if these forecasts hold.

Bulls argue that the wide gap between the current share price, analyst expectations and DCF fair value is only justified if the loss trend persists, so it helps to walk through their full thesis alongside these earnings figures 🐂 Surgery Partners Bull Case.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Surgery Partners on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With both risks and rewards on the table, do you feel the story tilts bullish or cautious right now? Are you ready to test that view against the full risk and reward breakdown 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Surgery Partners is still working through meaningful trailing losses of US$77.9 million, weak margins and a loss making EPS base, despite growing revenue.

If you want ideas where balance sheets and fundamentals look sturdier than this earnings profile, start shortlisting opportunities using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.