Surgery Partners (SGRY) shares are in focus after the company agreed to sell its interests in two Idaho Falls hospitals for about US$795 million, while reaffirming its 2026 revenue guidance of US$3.35 billion to US$3.45 billion.

The reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance and the Idaho Falls hospital sale have arrived alongside mixed trading for Surgery Partners, with a 90 day share price return of 9.69% contrasting with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 26.01%. This suggests near term momentum is improving while longer term holders remain under pressure.

If this kind of corporate reshaping has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in healthcare, starting with 39 healthcare AI stocks.

After the Idaho Falls sale news and the reaffirmed 2026 guidance, Surgery Partners now trades at a clear gap to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates. So where might fair value realistically sit within that spread?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.4% Undervalued

On the latest numbers, Surgery Partners is trading at $15.73 against a narrative fair value estimate of about $17.95, putting a spotlight on how analysts think revenue, margins, and cash flows could evolve from here.

The analyst-derived fair value estimate for Surgery Partners has shifted from about $18.80 to roughly $17.95, as analysts factor in recent price target cuts tied to Q4 margin pressures, a softer 2026 EBITDA outlook, and concerns around payer mix, anesthesia costs, and a slower M&A contribution.

The current narrative leans on higher future earnings, an improving margin profile, and a premium earnings multiple to justify that fair value. One core assumption is that revenue growth and profitability both move in the right direction while the discount rate stays anchored. Another is that Surgery Partners ultimately earns a valuation more in line with faster growing healthcare stocks than with its own recent history.

Result: Fair Value of $17.95 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Surgery Partners still faces pressure from higher interest expenses and slower acquisition activity, which could weigh on margins and challenge the current recovery narrative.

Next Steps

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.