Sygnia flags Hormuz disruption driving oil to $120/bbl, triggering broad market selloff

  • Sygnia flagged a severe Middle East supply shock, with Brent crude at USD 120/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
  • Disruption removed 12 million bpd of supply, impeded 20 million bpd transiting Hormuz; IEA released 400 million barrels, covering 26 days.
  • Iran charged USD 2 million per voyage for some transits; mines and drones limited effective naval escort options.
  • Israel strike on South Pars triggered infrastructure attacks, impairing 17% of Qatar LNG capacity for three to five years; gas prices nearly doubled YTD.
  • Supply squeeze extended to petrochemicals, fertilizer, sulfur, helium; urea rose 70%, ammonia 80%, raising risks for food and semiconductor chains.


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