It's been a good week for Sylvamo Corporation (NYSE:SLVM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.8% to US$43.07. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$846m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.3% to hit US$1.41 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Sylvamo after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Sylvamo, is for revenues of US$3.26b in 2026. This implies a perceptible 5.0% reduction in Sylvamo's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 25% to US$5.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.82 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$52.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sylvamo analyst has a price target of US$68.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$41.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.0% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Sylvamo's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Sylvamo's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Sylvamo. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Sylvamo analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.