Last week, you might have seen that Sysco Corporation (NYSE:SYY) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$74.05 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.71, some 25% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$21b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Sysco's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$88.5b in 2027. This reflects a reasonable 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 33% to US$4.85. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$88.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.01 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$86.20, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sysco analyst has a price target of US$100.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$70.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Sysco's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Sysco's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 8.9% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Sysco's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sysco. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Sysco going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Sysco has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.