• Earlier this week, US auto safety regulators opened a special investigation into a fatal Tesla Model 3 crash in Texas where the driver reported using the car’s automated driving assistance system, intensifying scrutiny of Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technologies.
• The probe directly targets systems that underpin Tesla’s autonomy and robotaxi ambitions, a core pillar of the company’s high-margin software-led business thesis.
• We’ll now examine how this new federal safety investigation into Tesla’s driver-assistance software could reshape the company’s autonomy-driven investment narrative.

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Tesla Investment Narrative Recap

To own Tesla today, you need to believe its long term value will be driven less by selling cars and more by monetizing autonomy, software, and energy. The new NHTSA probe into a fatal Model 3 crash goes straight at that thesis, as regulatory pushback on Autopilot and FSD is now the most immediate risk, while the key short term catalyst remains proving safe, scalable robotaxi and FSD rollouts.

Against this backdrop, Tesla’s multi year European battery storage deal with NatPower, targeting more than 100 GWh of Megapack deployments, matters. It underlines that even as autonomy faces intensified U.S. safety scrutiny, the Energy Generation and Storage segment is building a separate, utility scale revenue pillar tied to grid stability and AI power demand, which could partially offset delays or setbacks in the autonomy monetization timeline.

But while autonomy headlines grab attention, investors should also be aware that the real pressure point may be how regulators ultimately treat FSD’s expansion into…

Tesla’s narrative projects $149.5 billion revenue and $13.1 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 15.2% yearly revenue growth and a $9.2 billion earnings increase from $3.9 billion today.

Uncover how Tesla's forecasts yield a $420.55 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

While consensus focuses on regulatory risks from the Texas crash, the most bullish analysts were projecting US$214.1 billion of 2029 revenue and US$17.5 billion of earnings, showing how differently you might view the same headlines if you expect autonomy and AI to transform Tesla’s business and are open to revisiting those expectations as new safety investigations unfold.

Explore 79 other fair value estimates on Tesla - why the stock might be worth as much as 74% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Tesla research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tesla research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tesla's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.