• Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum announced a joint development agreement to build the first new U.S. primary aluminum smelter since 1980, a 750,000‑tonne‑per‑year plant in Inola, Oklahoma that is expected to create 1,000 permanent jobs and 4,000 construction jobs.
• The project, which will use EGA’s latest EX smelting technology and focus both partners’ greenfield efforts on the Inola site, could materially reshape America’s aluminum supply chain and industrial capability.
• We’ll now examine how this large-scale Inola project, using advanced EX technology, may influence Century Aluminum’s longer-term investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

What Is Century Aluminum's Investment Narrative?

To own Century Aluminum, you have to believe in its role as a leveraged play on U.S. aluminum demand and policy support for domestic, lower‑carbon metals, while accepting earnings that are still volatile and thinly margined. The new Inola joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium fits squarely into that thesis: it signals a long-term bet on U.S. supply security and Century’s operational relevance, but it does little for near-term numbers, given first production is only expected late in the decade. In the short run, the key catalysts remain aluminum pricing, power contracts and any updates on construction timing and capital commitments for Inola, all against a backdrop of a high earnings multiple and compressed margins. That makes execution risk and project funding discipline more central to the story than before.

But there is one project-related risk here that current shareholders should not ignore. Century Aluminum's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 39%. Find out what it's worth.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value views span roughly US$22 to just over US$80 per share, underlining how far opinions can stretch. Set that against the ambitious Inola build and rising execution risk, and it is clear you are weighing very different paths for Century’s long-term profitability.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth as much as 65% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.