• In late January 2026, Emirates Global Aluminium and Century Aluminum announced a joint development agreement to build a new primary aluminum plant in Inola, Oklahoma, with EGA owning 60% and Century 40%, targeting annual output of 750,000 tonnes and using EGA’s latest EX smelting technology.
• By more than doubling current U.S. primary aluminum capacity and concentrating both partners’ greenfield efforts at Tulsa Port of Inola, the project aims to reshape domestic supply chains, workforce skills, and regional industrial development around a new aluminum hub.
• With this large-scale Oklahoma smelter set to expand domestic capacity, we’ll examine how the project shapes Century Aluminum’s investment narrative.

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What Is Century Aluminum's Investment Narrative?

For Century Aluminum, you really have to buy into a U.S. reshoring story where domestic smelting capacity and know‑how matter, and where a relatively low 7.1% return on equity can still make sense alongside high earnings volatility. The new joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium fits squarely into that: a 750,000‑tonne Oklahoma smelter that more than doubles U.S. output is a meaningful shift in Century’s narrative, even if it will not affect near term earnings, given construction is only expected to start in 2026. In the short run, the key catalysts remain aluminum prices, operational performance at existing plants, and balance sheet flexibility, all against a backdrop of a high price to earnings multiple and profit margins that have tightened versus last year. The Inola project adds long dated growth potential but also introduces large project execution and power cost risks that investors now need to factor in.

However, investors also need to be aware of the project’s heavy reliance on securing competitive long term power. Century Aluminum's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 41%. Find out what it's worth.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Two Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Century Aluminum range from about US$50 to just over US$80, underscoring how far apart opinions can be. That spread sits against a business where the Oklahoma smelter joint venture could reshape long term capacity, while near term results still hinge on aluminum prices, margin discipline, and the company’s ability to manage debt and large project risk. Readers may want to weigh these differing views before deciding how the new growth story fits their own expectations for the company’s performance.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth just $50.00!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.