• In June 2026, Brimstone announced a memorandum of understanding with Century Aluminum to create a fully domestic, mine-to-metal U.S. aluminum supply chain by supplying alumina from its forthcoming Nevada plant, using a calcium-bearing silicate feedstock instead of bauxite.
• This agreement highlights a potential new domestic alumina source for Century Aluminum that could improve supply security and reduce exposure to overseas disruptions.
• Next, we'll examine how this planned U.S.-sourced alumina supply could influence Century Aluminum's existing investment narrative around growth and risk.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Century Aluminum, you need to believe in its U.S. growth story around Mt. Holly, the planned new smelter, and supportive trade policy, while recognizing heavy exposure to power and raw material costs. The Brimstone alumina MOU could modestly reduce long term supply risk, but with Brimstone’s industrial plant not expected until 2034, it does not change the near term focus on project execution and policy dependence as the key catalyst and risk.

Among recent announcements, the joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new 750,000 tonne per year smelter in Oklahoma ties most directly to this Brimstone news. Both point toward a more domestically anchored supply chain at the same time Century is planning its largest growth project, which sharpens the importance of managing cost overruns, timelines, and future power and alumina contracts as investors weigh upside against execution risk.

Yet behind this growth story, investors also need to be aware of how dependent Century remains on U.S. policy support and power arrangements...

Century Aluminum's narrative projects $4.7 billion revenue and $1.6 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $80.00 fair value, a 74% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before the Brimstone news, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue of about US$3.7 billion and earnings near US$930.0 million by 2029, which is far more bullish than consensus and leans heavily on benefits from tariffs and tax credits that may now be reassessed in light of a potential mine to metal U.S. alumina supply chain.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth just $67.00!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.