• In early December 2025, Lockhart Power announced that First Solar will supply solar modules for the Lockhart III and IV projects in San Bernardino County, California, adding to the company’s utility-scale footprint in the U.S. market.
• This contract, alongside First Solar’s record Q3 performance and multi‑gigawatt sales momentum, underscores how large, long-term projects are reinforcing its revenue visibility and order backlog.
• With this new Lockhart III and IV supply deal highlighting First Solar’s expanding U.S. project pipeline, we’ll examine how it reshapes the company’s investment narrative.

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First Solar Investment Narrative Recap

To own First Solar, you need to believe utility scale solar will keep gaining share in power generation and that U.S. policy support and domestic manufacturing remain intact. The Lockhart III and IV supply deal strengthens near term revenue visibility, but does not materially change the key near term catalyst, which is execution on the company’s aggressive U.S. capacity ramp. The biggest current risk remains policy or trade shifts that affect incentives or costs for its U.S. focused model.

In that context, the recent inauguration of First Solar’s US$1.1 billion, fully integrated Louisiana facility looks particularly relevant, because it directly supports large U.S. projects like Lockhart III and IV while leaning into policy backed demand for American made modules. This expansion toward 14 GW of U.S. capacity by 2026 ties closely to the core bullish thesis that supply chain localization and domestic content rules can sustain pricing power and backlog quality.

Yet while policy support currently appears favorable, investors should be aware that...

First Solar's narrative projects $7.0 billion revenue and $3.2 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how First Solar's forecasts yield a $271.61 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty eight members of the Simply Wall St Community value First Solar between US$142 and US$486 per share, underscoring how far opinions can spread. Against that backdrop, the company’s heavy reliance on U.S. policy support makes it important to compare several viewpoints before deciding how those incentives might affect future performance.

Explore 28 other fair value estimates on First Solar - why the stock might be worth as much as 85% more than the current price!

Build Your Own First Solar Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your First Solar research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free First Solar research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate First Solar's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.