Investors in The Carlyle Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CG) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at US$47.79 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenue of US$1.1b beat expectations by an impressive 22%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$2.18, in line with estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Carlyle Group's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$3.79b in 2026. This would reflect a major 35% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 296% to US$4.08. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.33 in 2026. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a massive increase in earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$57.82, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Carlyle Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$73.00 and the most bearish at US$49.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Carlyle Group shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Carlyle Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Carlyle Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 83% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 17% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. Not only are Carlyle Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Carlyle Group's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Carlyle Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Carlyle Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.