M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.5% to US$146 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenues of US$1.1b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$3.02, missing estimates by 3.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, M/I Homes' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$4.24b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$12.35, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.50 in 2026. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small lift in revenue estimates.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of US$163, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to M/I Homes's valuation in the near term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on M/I Homes, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$170 and the most bearish at US$155 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the M/I Homes' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. It's pretty clear that M/I Homes' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on M/I Homes. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for M/I Homes going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.